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Safety in Numbers

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recht gut geschriebene Betrachtung über Risk Factors und Statistiken in der Luftfahrt. Im Professional Pilot Magazine. Von Peter Berendsen 747 Pilot bei der LH




A major airline with 350 aircraft and a mix of short, medium and long-haul operations will have about 1500 departures or flight sectors a day. That is over half a million flights a year and over 1 million flights in 2 years. The International Air Transport Association (IATA), a well established organization of the world’s airlines, pronounced a safety goal of 1 hull loss per 1 million flights many years ago.

While that sounds comforting and safe to an individual, for a major airline with 1 million flights every 2 years, that would also mean a major accident or hull loss every 2 years.

However, a major accident every 2 years would be unacceptable to the public, employees, the insurers and shareholders. Realizing that it’s impossible to achieve “no risk,” the best practice goal of major airlines today is a risk level of 10-7.

This is a 10-fold reduction in risk and means that a total loss is expected every 20 years for an airline with 1500 flights a day. Very large airline groups with 800-1000 aircraft even strive for a risk level of 10-8, which is a further 10-fold improvement in safety level. The same logic applies to operators of corporate jets, especially as they get quite large..."



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